Genetic approaches reveal a healthy population and an unexpectedly recent origin for an isolated desert spring fish.

Foskett Spring in Oregon's desert harbors a historically threatened population of Western Speckled Dace (Rhinichthys klamathensis). Though recently delisted, the dace's recruitment depends upon regular removal of encroaching vegetation. Previous studies assumed that Foskett Dace separated from others in the Warner Valley about 10,000 years ago, thereby framing an enigma about the population's surprising ability to persist for so long in a tiny habitat easily overrun by plants. To investigate that persistence and the effectiveness of interventions to augment population size, we assessed genetic diversity among daces inhabiting Foskett Spring, a refuge at Dace Spring, and three nearby streams. Analysis revealed a robust effective population size (Ne) of nearly 5000 within Foskett Spring, though Ne in the Dace Spring refuge is just 10% of that value. Heterozygosity is slightly lower than expected based on random mating at all five sites, indicating mild inbreeding, but not at a level of concern. These results confirm the genetic health of Foskett Dace. Unexpectedly, genetic differentiation reveals closer similarity between Foskett Dace and a newly discovered population from Nevada's Coleman Creek than between Foskett Dace and dace elsewhere in Oregon. Demographic modeling inferred Coleman Creek as the ancestral source of Foskett Dace fewer than 1000 years ago, much more recently than previously suspected and possibly coincident with the arrival of large herbivores whose grazing may have maintained open water suitable for reproduction. These results solve the enigma of persistence by greatly shortening the duration over which Foskett Dace have inhabited their isolated spring.

Barriers to and Facilitators of Implementing Guidelines for Detecting Familial Hypercholesterolaemia in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a genetic condition that is a preventable cause of premature cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. High-level evidence and clinical practice guidelines support preventative care for people with FH. However, it is estimated that less than 10% of people at risk of FH have been detected using any approach across Australian health settings. The aim of this study was to identify the implementation barriers to and facilitators of the detection of FH in Australia. METHODS: Four, 2-hour virtual focus groups were facilitated by implementation scientists and a clinicians as part of the 2021 Australasian FH Summit. Template analysis was used to identify themes. RESULTS: There were 28 workshop attendees across four groups (n=6-8 each), yielding 13 barriers and 10 facilitators across three themes: (1) patient related, (2) provider related, and (3) system related. A "lack of care pathways" and "upskilling clinicians in identifying and diagnosing FH" were the most interconnected barriers and facilitators for the detection of FH. CONCLUSIONS: The relationships between barriers and facilitators across the patient, provider, and system themes indicates that a comprehensive implementation strategy is needed to address these different levels. Future research is underway to develop a model for implementing the Australian FH guidelines into practice.

Using Digital Tools to Train Health Emergencies Personnel in Fragile Contexts.

The Leadership in Emergencies learning programme, launched in 2019, was designed to strengthen the competencies of World Health Organization (WHO) and Member State staff in teamwork, decision-making and communication, key skills required to lead effectively in emergencies. While the programme was initially used to train 43 staff in a workshop setting, the COVID-19 pandemic required a new remote approach. An online learning environment was developed using a variety of digital tools including WHO's open learning platform, OpenWHO.org. The strategic use of these technologies enabled WHO to dramatically expand access to the programme for personnel responding to health emergencies in fragile contexts and increase participation among key groups that were previously underserved.

A synthetic dataset of Danish residential electricity prosumers.

Conventional residential electricity consumers are becoming prosumers who not only consume electricity but also produce it. This shift is expected to occur over the next few decades at a large scale, and it presents numerous uncertainties and risks for the operation, planning, investment, and viable business models of the electricity grid. To prepare for this shift, researchers, utilities, policymakers, and emerging businesses require a comprehensive understanding of future prosumers' electricity consumption. Unfortunately, there is a limited amount of data available due to privacy concerns and the slow adoption of new technologies such as battery electric vehicles and home automation. To address this issue, this paper introduces a synthetic dataset containing five types of residential prosumers' imported and exported electricity data. The dataset was developed using real traditional consumers' data from Denmark, PV generation data from the global solar energy estimator (GSEE) model, electric vehicle (EV) charging data generated using emobpy package, a residential energy storage system (ESS) operator and a generative adversarial network (GAN) based model to produce synthetic data. The quality of the dataset was assessed and validated through qualitative inspection and three methods: empirical statistics, metrics based on information theory, and evaluation metrics based on machine learning techniques.

A Highly Contiguous and Annotated Genome Assembly of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus).

The Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus; LEPC) is an iconic North American prairie grouse, renowned for ornate and spectacular breeding season displays. Unfortunately, the species has disappeared across much of its historical range, with corresponding precipitous declines in contemporary population abundance, largely due to climatic and anthropogenic factors. These declines led to a 2022 US Fish and Wildlife decision to identify and list two distinct population segments (DPSs; i.e., northern and southern DPSs) as threatened or endangered under the 1973 Endangered Species Act. Herein, we describe an annotated reference genome that was generated from a LEPC sample collected from the southern DPS. We chose a representative from the southern DPS because of the potential for introgression in the northern DPS, where some populations hybridize with the Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido). This new LEPC reference assembly consists of 206 scaffolds, an N50 of 45 Mb, and 15,563 predicted protein-coding genes. We demonstrate the utility of this new genome assembly by estimating genome-wide heterozygosity in a representative LEPC and in related species. Heterozygosity in a LEPC sample was 0.0024, near the middle of the range (0.0003-0.0050) of related species. Overall, this new assembly provides a valuable resource that will enhance evolutionary and conservation genetic research in prairie grouse.

The effect of bottleneck size on evolution in nested Darwinian populations.

Previous work has shown how a minimal ecological structure consisting of patchily distributed resources and recurrent dispersal between patches can scaffold Darwinian properties onto collections of cells. When the timescale of dispersal is long compared with the time to consume resources, patch fitness increases but comes at a cost to cell growth rates. This creates conditions that initiate evolutionary transitions in individuality. A key feature of the scaffold is a bottleneck created during dispersal, causing patches to be founded by single cells. The bottleneck decreases competition within patches and, hence, creates a strong hereditary link at the level of patches. Here, we construct a fully stochastic model to investigate the effect of bottleneck size on the evolutionary dynamics of both cells and collectives. We show that larger bottlenecks simply slow the dynamics, but, at some point, which depends on the parameters of the within-patch model, the direction of evolution towards the equilibrium reverses. Introduction of random fluctuations in bottleneck sizes with some positive probability of smaller sizes counteracts this, even when the probability of smaller bottlenecks is minimal.

The case for investment in tobacco control: lessons from four countries in the Americas.

Objective: To synthesize learnings from four national tobacco control investment cases conducted in the Americas (Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Suriname) under the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) 2030 project, to describe results and how national health authorities have used the cases, and to discuss implications for the role of investment cases in advancing tobacco control. Methods: We draw on findings from four national investment cases that included 1) a cost-of-illness analysis calculating the health and economic burden of tobacco use, 2) a return-on-investment analysis of implementing key tobacco control demand reduction measures, and 3) a subsidiary analysis of one tobacco control topic of national interest (e.g., equity implications of cigarette taxation). Co-authors reported how cases have been used to advance tobacco control. Results: In Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Suriname, tobacco use causes social and economic losses equivalent to between 1.0 to 1.8 percent of GDP. Across these countries, implementing WHO FCTC demand reduction measures would save an average of 11 400 lives per year over the next 15 years. Benefits of the measures would far outweigh the costs of implementation and enforcement. Governments are using the cases to advance tobacco control, including to improve tobacco control laws and their enforcement, strengthen tobacco taxation, prioritize tobacco control planning, coordinate a multisectoral response, and engage political leaders. Conclusions: National investment cases can help to strengthen tobacco control in countries, including by increasing public and political support for implementation of the WHO FCTC and by informing effective planning, legislation, coordination and financing.

The case for investment in tobacco control: lessons from four countries in the Americas

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To synthesize learnings from four national tobacco control investment cases conducted in the Ameri- cas (Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Suriname) under the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) 2030 project, to describe results and how national health authorities have used the cases, and to discuss implications for the role of investment cases in advancing tobacco control. Methods. We draw on findings from four national investment cases that included 1) a cost-of-illness analysis calculating the health and economic burden of tobacco use, 2) a return-on-investment analysis of implement- ing key tobacco control demand reduction measures, and 3) a subsidiary analysis of one tobacco control topic of national interest (e.g., equity implications of cigarette taxation). Co-authors reported how cases have been used to advance tobacco control. Results. In Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Suriname, tobacco use causes social and economic losses equivalent to between 1.0 to 1.8 percent of GDP. Across these countries, implementing WHO FCTC demand reduction measures would save an average of 11 400 lives per year over the next 15 years. Benefits of the mea- sures would far outweigh the costs of implementation and enforcement. Governments are using the cases to advance tobacco control, including to improve tobacco control laws and their enforcement, strengthen tobacco taxation, prioritize tobacco control planning, coordinate a multisectoral response, and engage political leaders. Conclusions. National investment cases can help to strengthen tobacco control in countries, including by increasing public and political support for implementation of the WHO FCTC and by informing effective plan- ning, legislation, coordination and financing.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Resumir las enseñanzas de cuatro casos nacionales de inversión en el control del tabaco llevados a cabo en la Región de las Américas (Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador y Surinam) en el marco del proyecto 2030 del Convenio Marco de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT), describir los resultados y cómo las autoridades nacionales de salud han empleado los casos, y abordar las implica- ciones para la función de los casos de inversión en el avance del control del tabaco. Métodos. Este estudio está basado en los hallazgos de cuatro casos de inversión nacional que incluían 1) un análisis del costo de la enfermedad que estima la carga sanitaria y económica del consumo de tabaco, 2) un análisis del rendimiento de la inversión de la ejecución de medidas clave de reducción de la demanda en el control del tabaco, y 3) un análisis subsidiario de un tema de interés nacional sobre el control del tabaco (por ejemplo, el impacto en la equidad de los impuestos sobre los cigarrillos). Los coautores notificaron cómo se han utilizado los casos para avanzar en el control del tabaco. Resultados. En Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador y Surinam, el consumo de tabaco causa pérdidas sociales y económicas equivalentes a entre el 1,0 y el 1,8 por ciento del PIB. En todos estos países, la aplicación de las medidas de reducción de la demanda recogidas en el CMCT de la OMS salvaría una media de 11 400 vidas al año en los próximos 15 años. Los beneficios de estas medidas superarían con creces los costos de ejecución y cumplimiento. Los gobiernos están utilizando los casos para avanzar en el control del tabaco, como para mejorar las leyes de control y su aplicación, reforzar los impuestos sobre el tabaco, priorizar la planificación del control del tabaco, coordinar una respuesta multisectorial e involucrar a los líderes políticos. Conclusiones. Los casos de inversión nacional pueden ayudar a fortalecer el control del tabaco en los países, por ejemplo, al aumentar el apoyo público y político a la aplicación del CMCT de la OMS y al informar sobre una planificación, legislación, coordinación y financiación eficaces.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Sintetizar as lições aprendidas com quatro casos de investimento nacional no controle do tabaco nas Américas (Colômbia, Costa Rica, El Salvador e Suriname) no âmbito do projeto Convenção-Quadro para o Controle do Tabaco da Organização Mundial da Saúde (CQCT-OMS) 2030, descrever os resultados e as formas como as autoridades sanitárias nacionais utilizaram os casos e discutir as implicações para o papel dos casos de investimento no avanço do controle do tabaco. Métodos. O presente estudo recorre aos achados de quatro casos de investimento nacional, incluindo: 1) análise de custo da doença, com o cálculo da carga do tabagismo para a saúde e a economia; 2) análise do retorno sobre o investimento na implementação de medidas fundamentais de redução da demanda para controle do tabaco; e 3) análise secundária de um tópico de controle do tabaco de interesse nacional (por exemplo, implicações da tributação de cigarros para a equidade). Os coautores relatam como os casos foram utilizados para promover o controle do tabaco. Resultados. Na Colômbia, na Costa Rica, em El Salvador e no Suriname, o tabagismo provoca perdas soci- ais e econômicas que equivalem a 1,0 a 1,8% do produto interno bruto. Nesses países, a implementação de medidas de redução da demanda da CQCT-OMS pouparia em média 11.400 vidas por ano nos próximos 15 anos. Os benefícios dessas medidas superariam em muito os custos de implementação e fiscalização. Os governos estão usando esses casos para promover o controle do tabaco, inclusive para melhorar as leis de controle do tabaco e sua fiscalização, reforçar a tributação do tabaco, priorizar o planejamento do controle do tabaco, coordenar uma resposta multissetorial e envolver líderes políticos. Conclusões. Casos de investimento nacional podem ajudar a fortalecer o controle do tabaco nos países, aumentando o apoio político e do público para a implementação da CQCT-OMS e contribuindo para um planejamento, legislação, coordenação e financiamento efetivos.

Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19.

Background: First Few "X" (FFX) studies provide a platform to collect the required epidemiological, clinical and virological data to help address emerging information needs about the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We adapted the WHO FFX protocol for COVID-19 to understand severity and household transmission dynamics in the early stages of the pandemic in Australia. Implementation strategies were developed for participating sites; all household members were followed for 14 days from case identification. Household contacts completed symptom diaries and had multiple respiratory swabs taken irrespective of symptoms. We modelled the spread of COVID-19 within households using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-type model, and calculated the household secondary attack rate and key epidemiological parameters. Findings: 96 households with 101 cases and 286 household contacts were recruited into the study between April-October 2020. Forty household contacts tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the study follow-up period. Our model estimated the household secondary attack rate to be 15% (95% CI 8-25%), which scaled up with increasing household size. Our findings suggest children were less infectious than their adult counterparts but were also more susceptible to infection. Interpretation: Our study provides important baseline data characterising the transmission of early SARS-CoV-2 strains from children and adults in Australia, against which properties of variants of concern can be benchmarked. We encountered many challenges with respect to logistics, ethics, governance and data management. Continued efforts to invest in preparedness research will help to test, refine and further develop Australian FFX study protocols in advance of future outbreaks. Funding: Australian Government Department of Health.

Digitalizing WHO's Health Emergency Leadership Training During the Pandemic.

The WHO Health Emergencies Programme combined online tools with adult learning techniques to develop an innovative online leadership course. A combination of self-paced learning and online classes were used to deliver skills-based leadership training tailored to public health staff working in emergency response roles. Although using an online approach was considered a temporary solution to counter travel restrictions during the pandemic, the advantages have challenged preconceptions that effective learning, networking and peer exchange for leadership can only be achieved through face-to-face learning.

Insights on Public Health Professionals Non-technical Skills in an Emergency Response (Multi-Team System) Environment.

This paper provides practitioner and academic insights into the importance of examining non-technical skills in a multiteam system emergency response. The case of public health professionals is highlighted, illustrated with unique qualitative field data which focused upon the use of non-technical skills at a meso level of analysis. Results reflected the importance of context upon the multiteam system and highlighted seven non-technical skills used by public health professionals to support an effective response. Recommendations for future research and implications for practice are noted for this hard to access professional group, located within emerging advances in the scientific inquiry of complex and increasingly evident, multi-team systems.

Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned.

During the early stages of an emerging disease outbreak, governments are required to make critical decisions on how to respond, despite limited data being available to inform these decisions. Analytical risk assessment is a valuable approach to guide decision-making on travel restrictions and border measures during the early phase of an outbreak. Here we describe a rapid risk assessment framework that was developed in February 2020 to support time-critical decisions on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation into Australia. We briefly describe the context in which our framework was developed, the framework itself, and provide an example of the type of decision support provided to the Australian government. We then report a critical evaluation of the modelling choices made in February 2020, assessing the impact of our assumptions on estimated rates of importation, and provide a summary of "lessons learned". The framework presented and evaluated here provides a flexible approach to rapid assessment of importation risk, of relevance to current and future pandemic scenarios.

The case for investment in tobacco control: lessons from four countries in the Americas / El caso de la inversión en el control del tabaco: las enseñanzas de cuatro países de la Región de las Américas / Em defesa do investimento no controle do tabaco: lições de quatro países das Américas

ABSTRACT Objective. To synthesize learnings from four national tobacco control investment cases conducted in the Americas (Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Suriname) under the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) 2030 project, to describe results and how national health authorities have used the cases, and to discuss implications for the role of investment cases in advancing tobacco control. Methods. We draw on findings from four national investment cases that included 1) a cost-of-illness analysis calculating the health and economic burden of tobacco use, 2) a return-on-investment analysis of implementing key tobacco control demand reduction measures, and 3) a subsidiary analysis of one tobacco control topic of national interest (e.g., equity implications of cigarette taxation). Co-authors reported how cases have been used to advance tobacco control. Results. In Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Suriname, tobacco use causes social and economic losses equivalent to between 1.0 to 1.8 percent of GDP. Across these countries, implementing WHO FCTC demand reduction measures would save an average of 11 400 lives per year over the next 15 years. Benefits of the measures would far outweigh the costs of implementation and enforcement. Governments are using the cases to advance tobacco control, including to improve tobacco control laws and their enforcement, strengthen tobacco taxation, prioritize tobacco control planning, coordinate a multisectoral response, and engage political leaders. Conclusions. National investment cases can help to strengthen tobacco control in countries, including by increasing public and political support for implementation of the WHO FCTC and by informing effective planning, legislation, coordination and financing.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Resumir las enseñanzas de cuatro casos nacionales de inversión en el control del tabaco llevados a cabo en la Región de las Américas (Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador y Surinam) en el marco del proyecto 2030 del Convenio Marco de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT), describir los resultados y cómo las autoridades nacionales de salud han empleado los casos, y abordar las implicaciones para la función de los casos de inversión en el avance del control del tabaco. Métodos. Este estudio está basado en los hallazgos de cuatro casos de inversión nacional que incluían 1) un análisis del costo de la enfermedad que estima la carga sanitaria y económica del consumo de tabaco, 2) un análisis del rendimiento de la inversión de la ejecución de medidas clave de reducción de la demanda en el control del tabaco, y 3) un análisis subsidiario de un tema de interés nacional sobre el control del tabaco (por ejemplo, el impacto en la equidad de los impuestos sobre los cigarrillos). Los coautores notificaron cómo se han utilizado los casos para avanzar en el control del tabaco. Resultados. En Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador y Surinam, el consumo de tabaco causa pérdidas sociales y económicas equivalentes a entre el 1,0 y el 1,8 por ciento del PIB. En todos estos países, la aplicación de las medidas de reducción de la demanda recogidas en el CMCT de la OMS salvaría una media de 11 400 vidas al año en los próximos 15 años. Los beneficios de estas medidas superarían con creces los costos de ejecución y cumplimiento. Los gobiernos están utilizando los casos para avanzar en el control del tabaco, como para mejorar las leyes de control y su aplicación, reforzar los impuestos sobre el tabaco, priorizar la planificación del control del tabaco, coordinar una respuesta multisectorial e involucrar a los líderes políticos. Conclusiones. Los casos de inversión nacional pueden ayudar a fortalecer el control del tabaco en los países, por ejemplo, al aumentar el apoyo público y político a la aplicación del CMCT de la OMS y al informar sobre una planificación, legislación, coordinación y financiación eficaces.

RESUMO Objetivo. Sintetizar as lições aprendidas com quatro casos de investimento nacional no controle do tabaco nas Américas (Colômbia, Costa Rica, El Salvador e Suriname) no âmbito do projeto Convenção-Quadro para o Controle do Tabaco da Organização Mundial da Saúde (CQCT-OMS) 2030, descrever os resultados e as formas como as autoridades sanitárias nacionais utilizaram os casos e discutir as implicações para o papel dos casos de investimento no avanço do controle do tabaco. Métodos. O presente estudo recorre aos achados de quatro casos de investimento nacional, incluindo: 1) análise de custo da doença, com o cálculo da carga do tabagismo para a saúde e a economia; 2) análise do retorno sobre o investimento na implementação de medidas fundamentais de redução da demanda para controle do tabaco; e 3) análise secundária de um tópico de controle do tabaco de interesse nacional (por exemplo, implicações da tributação de cigarros para a equidade). Os coautores relatam como os casos foram utilizados para promover o controle do tabaco. Resultados. Na Colômbia, na Costa Rica, em El Salvador e no Suriname, o tabagismo provoca perdas sociais e econômicas que equivalem a 1,0 a 1,8% do produto interno bruto. Nesses países, a implementação de medidas de redução da demanda da CQCT-OMS pouparia em média 11.400 vidas por ano nos próximos 15 anos. Os benefícios dessas medidas superariam em muito os custos de implementação e fiscalização. Os governos estão usando esses casos para promover o controle do tabaco, inclusive para melhorar as leis de controle do tabaco e sua fiscalização, reforçar a tributação do tabaco, priorizar o planejamento do controle do tabaco, coordenar uma resposta multissetorial e envolver líderes políticos. Conclusões. Casos de investimento nacional podem ajudar a fortalecer o controle do tabaco nos países, aumentando o apoio político e do público para a implementação da CQCT-OMS e contribuindo para um planejamento, legislação, coordenação e financiamento efetivos.

The pesticide health risk index - An application to the world's countries.

While the use of pesticides continues to rise worldwide, our understanding of the pervasiveness of associated contamination and the health risks humans may be exposed to remain limited to small samples size, and based on small geographic scales, the exposed population, or the pesticide types. Using our recent mapping of global pesticide use, we quantify three complementary health risk metrics for 92 active ingredients: (i) the pesticide hazard load (PHL); (ii) the population exposure (PE); and (iii) the human intake relative to the acceptable dose (INTR). We integrated these metrics into the pesticide health risk index (PHRI) to assess the standing of 133 nations against the global averages of PHL and PE and the acceptable levels of INTR using data of 2015 (PHRI > 1 indicates a concern). We found that some low-toxicity ingredients have PHL values equivalent to high-toxicity ones, and hence neglecting low-toxicity ingredients may cause biases in risk assessments. The geography of PHL, PE, and INTR show hotspots across the Americas, East and South Asia, and Europe, but with the EU27 countries generally showing lower PHL than other countries possibly due to strict governance on pesticide use. By our measure, about 1.7 billion people (24% of the world population) reside in close proximity to where pesticide applications are greater than 100 kg-a.i. km-2 year-1; about 2.3 billion people (32% of the world population) may exceed the acceptable pesticide intake and about 1.1 billion (15% of the world population) may exceed this by 10 fold. We identified 36 countries with PHRI > 1 and 6 countries with PHRI > 5; of these countries, 10 belong to lower-middle and low income economies. Our analyses show that proximity exposure to pesticides may be more widespread than revealed in occupational studies, and therefore assessments of potential health effects over wider scales may be needed.

The endangered White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa) genome reveals low diversity and heterogenous patterns of differentiation.

The White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa), endemic to New Mexico in Southwestern North America, is of conservation concern due in part to invasive species, chemical pollution, and groundwater withdrawal. Herein, we developed a draft reference genome and use it to provide biological insights into the evolution and conservation of C. tularosa. We used our assembly to localize microsatellite markers previously used to demarcate evolutionary significant units (ESU), quantified genomic divergence and transposable element profiles between species, and compared C. tularosa genomic diversity related species. Our de novo assembly of PacBio Sequel II error-corrected reads resulted in a 1.08 Gb draft genome with a contig N50 of 1.4 Mb and 25,260 annotated protein coding genes, including 95% of the expected Actinopterygii conserved complete single-copy orthologues. Many of the C. tularosa microsatellite markers used for conservation assessments fell within, or near, genes and exhibited a pattern of increased heterozygosity near genic areas compared to those in intergenic regions. Nuclear alignments between these two species revealed 193 genes contained in rapidly diverging tracts; transposable element profiles were largely concordant and suggest a shared, rapid expansion of LINE and Gypsy elements. Genome-wide heterozygosity was markedly lower in C. tularosa compared to estimates from other related species, probably because of smaller long-term effective population sizes constrained by their isolated and limited habitat. Overall, these inferences provide new insights into C. tularosa that should help inform future management efforts.

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia.

The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.

Robbery in progress: Historical museum collections bring to light a mitochondrial capture within a bird species widespread across southern Australia, the Copperback Quail-thrush Cinclosoma clarum.

We surveyed mitochondrial, autosomal, and Z chromosome diversity within and between the Copperback Quail-thrush Cinclosoma clarum and Chestnut Quail-thrush C. castanotum, which together span the arid and semi-arid zones of southern Australia, and primarily from specimens held in museum collections. We affirm the recent taxonomic separation of the two species and then focus on diversity within the more widespread of the two species, C. clarum. To guide further study of the system and what it offers to understanding the genomics of the differentiation and speciation processes, we develop and present a hypothesis to explain mitonuclear discordance that emerged in ourdata. Following a period of historical allopatry, secondary contact has resulted in an eastern mitochondrial genome replacing the western mitochondrial genome in western populations. This is predicted under a population-level invasion in the opposite direction, that of the western population invading the range of the eastern one. Mitochondrial captures can be driven by neutral, demographic processes, or adaptive mechanisms, and we favor the hypothesized capture being driven by neutral means. We cannot fully reject the adaptive process but suggest how these alternatives may be further tested. We acknowledge an alternative hypothesis, which finds some support in phenotypic data published elsewhere, namely that outcomes of secondary contact have been more complex than our current genomic data suggest. Discriminating and reconciling these two alternative hypotheses, which may not be mutually exclusive, could be tested with closer sampling at levels of population, individual, and nucleotide than has so far been possible. This would be further aided by knowledge of the genetic basis to phenotypic variation described elsewhere.

Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.

Modern data and computational resources, coupled with algorithmic and theoretical advances to exploit these, allow disease dynamic models to be parameterised with increasing detail and accuracy. While this enhances models' usefulness in prediction and policy, major challenges remain. In particular, lack of identifiability of a model's parameters may limit the usefulness of the model. While lack of parameter identifiability may be resolved through incorporation into an inference procedure of prior knowledge, formulating such knowledge is often difficult. Furthermore, there are practical challenges associated with acquiring data of sufficient quantity and quality. Here, we discuss recent progress on these issues.